contact with foreign exchange trading because I have more time for the market, there are some practical knowledge, are simply rough manner will be out some of the views and opinions, we explore what, I might not be practical or these views and obscure or is not correct, but experts and investors hoping to get corrections and comments, so that we get together to improve the level of investment.
probability
for determining the correct currency exchange rate trend, from the mathematical probability of it naturally should reach 50% of the. Because in the daily exchange rate fluctuations in the market, remain completely immobile almost zero, unless the suspension or holidays worldwide suspension for other reasons. From a longer period of time, even if you know nothing about foreign exchange transactions, but the direction of exchange rate fluctuations can only be two states, not up, is down, but still only relative, you close your eyes and optional one, 50% have the right to determine the possible. Therefore, we now determine the exchange rate trends or talk about the trend for investors and experts, if you want to make money, a minimum requirement is: you must be right to judge the trend of the probability of the probability of 50% higher than the market average; However, even if you tendency to judge the correctness of more than 50% or even 70% or more, you still have 50 more opportunities to lose money, because for many reasons, first, to determine the correct operation does not mean you will be correct, or insist that your operation will be sustained, there is your mental capacity and other factors; also stop your degree of success only to win, liquidity management, correct or not, sometimes a misjudgment, it may take your previous devour all the money, I would like to talk about these issues in the future. Second, the bank or institution to charge fees related to the deal, in fact, this probability is not considered to investors in the head.
but it also said that, we have the right to determine the trend of the exchange rate is a necessary condition to make money, although this condition is not a sufficient condition, but it does first.
said here a long time, summed up the last word, in order to make money in the foreign exchange market for a long time, investors are the most basic requirement is more than 70% probability of correctly judge the trend; and experts to guide investors to operate, it must with more than 80% probability of correctly judge the trend, otherwise, it is not a real expert, you put down to the actual operation, and soon will lose money.
tendency to judge the correctness, in fact, than point to judge the correctness of the important, this is because the correctness of the trend can be sudden or by a professional market analysis to determine the reflected, while the exact point, sometimes difficult to judge, because we are human beings, not gods.
Now, we say that this is based on the point of sale to determine the probability.
really want to determine if the precise point of sale, in fact, the probability is almost zero, in part because the investment market is random and chaotic, global foreign exchange market, large transactions have occurred at all times, at all times will be an impact on market prices. Who says they can if there is a very accurate forecast foreign exchange transactions in an accurate point, it is not coincidence, is belated. Coincidence is random, scarce, who will be wise after the event.
Generally speaking, we carry out foreign exchange transactions, to determine the trend of trading points with the general prediction. The so-called trend, foregoing brief description, that is, exchange rate and direction, on this basis, we adopted a variety of analysis methods and analysis tools, as close as possible to buy and sell, seek to maximize profits, foreign exchange transactions. In other words, seek the lowest point in a certain period with the highest point of the transaction, seeking an absolute point, less likely, and this is also the foreign exchange market operators as well as other investment taboo, proved that almost all of the world Investment guru can not accurately determine the foreign exchange market trading points. Perhaps foreign investment in this market, but also different from the stock and futures markets and other financial investments, which in theory and in fact there Kongpan possible, perhaps likely to be some super-precise control of large short-sale point, but can not be permanently controlled. However, huge foreign exchange market transactions, any arbitrary super-predators can not control the sale point. If the prediction is relatively accurate, it is very great, and unavoidably, to the use of moving averages, Fibonacci lines, KDJ, MACD and other system tools to determine the price, spread at an average of not more than 10 points, I think he is immortal the.
currency exchange rates But the ups and downs in short-term rate is also divided, otherwise, the currency exchange market has become only rise or fall not only up the single market, this is not possible, and if so, a country's currency exchange rate will tend to infinity, while the other country's currency exchange rate will tend to zero. I am here to say
However, the most important,
discount christian louboutin, how do we determine that a currency exchange rate I think that with the currency, the length of the period, market size has a relationship to a more detailed description of the problem, I tried to reflect this in tabular form. (Where the number of points for possible fluctuations in the range of ideas for reference)
150-300
60-120
70-140
60-120
70-140
in
200-300
300-450
120-180
140-210
120-180
140-210
long
300-500
450-750
180 - 300
210-350
180-300
210-350
the above table are based on national currency exchange rate movements in recent years, statistics from the summary, not necessarily accurate, but can be used as reference, the main investors know what their market trends, at what time, and point the exchange rate trend to determine the approximate position for future trading points to roughly judge, so that there is a basis for their investment. In general, in the investment market, the currency exchange market than the securities, futures and more restrictive, that is, they fluctuate more range, more for people to grasp. If 50% of the stock can be ups and downs, then ups and downs in currency exchange rates of 10% even larger margin of. Thus, in a certain period of time, the currency exchange rate if you find a long delay or lag phenomena, it should consider whether there will be changes in exchange rate issue, then the flow, to win the profits.
channel trend line and the principles and applications: the parallel channel at a certain time for investors to accept the maximum rate that can spread to withstand the psychological equivalent of the region; upward or downward trend line trend line is the exchange rate market development process, the can accept a maximum or minimum tolerance psychological point. So why invest in markets, including currency exchange rate market will form a perfect channel, or so the trend line? Is this just driven by investor psychology? Or where the regularity inherent in the investment market, I think this should be worth the trade-depth research, no idea's theory, the pressure on the support trend line or line of principle, there is no reason for its formation and detailed study of this nature conclusion, personally believe that the trend line and channel formation, probably with the entire investment market, the average time a period of time or transaction costs, but also every time and moment and investors the largest capacity on the average profit and loss, the psychological trend in average transaction related. Perhaps in the channel market phenomenon, has its inherent regularity of the market, waiting for us to conduct a comprehensive study.
but another most important is the trend line and channel theory can guide us in a moment, the trend line in the near or under the rail track or on a channel near the point of sale to judge, I believe this is now Most investors are well aware, there is not much to say.
currency , which each currency against dollars with the exchange rate, financial products and investment market correlation, the correlation of geographical and political conflict, etc.,
cheap moncler, have greater contact.
dollars each currency's exchange rate against the size of fluctuations in the exchange rate directly affects the scope of their level of activity, as long as the pointing position changes. Such as pounds euros dollars than dollars, as the most recent period, the pound dollar exchange rate is generally around 1.88, while the euro dollar exchange rate is generally around 1.28, so the sterling dollars exchange rate of dollars more than in the euro around 1.47, that sterling dollar exchange rate at around 1.47 , which determines the currency market, the volatility of most of the time points pounds more than the euro, but the two currencies within the exchange rate rose in decline for quite some time tend to be basically the same. However, the British pound against the euro dollars for dollars, which is much more short-term fluctuations to be aggressive, but also fierce up, or are fierce, observation time, the pound is often dramatic ups and downs in the form to complete its exchange rate fluctuations, that is that the rate of £ Change is more than most of the time than sterling-euro exchange rate. For example,
moncler women vests, most of the time in September, up 30 points if the euro, the pound may be up 60 points, or 100 points; Similarly, if the euro fell 30 points, the pound might fall 60 points, even 100 points. According to this currency characteristics of the short-term investors have a certain significance manipulator, if you find that disk, when the euro rose as positive when the euro-zone data,
Discount Louboutins, while sterling is lagging behind, we should consider whether you can do more short-term sterling , unless the pound when attacked by the bad; when we found when sterling rose sharply, the euro should also consider the lag may also rise, but the rate of rise may be relatively small; as the medium for non-US currency exchange rate will be ups and downs consistent, therefore, that the euro medium-term investors if the magnitude of ups and downs with the pound different, then the news of the trade-off with the fundamentals, you can consider the monetary compensatory growth or Budie.
Australian currency financial products and the Canadian dollar, the international crude oil, the international spot gold and precious metals price volatility reflects the relatively sensitive, because changes in the prices of financial products to its greater impact on the domestic economy. During this time, due to fluctuations in gold and crude oil prices, these commodities currencies are volatile.
of regional political conflict sensitive currencies such as yen, due to its location in Northeast Asia, lack of resources, both by the commodity currencies, especially crude oil prices, geopolitical conflict has been greatly influenced by factors such as the North Korean missile launch , test nuclear weapons, the yen fell sharply in the short term will be. The Swiss franc and the dollars remain in the near future as a safe-haven currency, sometimes in line with the precious metals into gold; but if the damage to U.S. strategic geopolitical significance of the conflict, then the dollars will the trend reverse with gold.
All these features
money, we can be as a reference when investors trade factors.
mathematical statistical probability in the foreign exchange market, the use of: the investment market, including foreign exchange market is a place full of mystery and charm, we do not need to look at the investment market is too sacred and noble, in this market, the fittest survival, swords everywhere. Like most of the investment markets, foreign exchange market is also
For example, I said earlier, investors do not understand what are, in theory, he invested in the foreign exchange market, the transaction processing fee if this factor aside, his amount of each transaction are the same, then he the probability of losing money to make money is 50%, which throw the coin, with the same probability is the same reason. Specific to the operating strategy, we have to determine the trend of foreign exchange transactions, such as statistical averages in the application, you'd better think about when the exchange rate from 5 under the 10 day moving average rose to above, in several months or a year, the probability of currency exchange rates continue to rise about how much? If the exchange rate 5th in this state up 10 day moving average crossover, the probability of currency exchange rate is? If, after their own statistics, the probability of an increase greater than 70-80% if, then consider whether to do more of this currency. A similar trend can be there to judge the case, for example, channel up or down a breakthrough moment, the existing currency exchange rates continue to trend the probability would it be? Increased or decreased during shock consolidation platform for the exchange rate after the breakthrough in the direction of probability and statistics. Within a year, each U.S. economic data released, more than expected in the case, the exchange rate suddenly up or down, and then return to the original price or even swallow the basic price is the probability that the original? ... ...
all the many examples, can become the object of investors and experts in statistics, then the trading strategy for their future service. This is actually a very practical use of mathematical probability and statistics, plainly, is to enable us to obtain the probability of winning as much as possible, so that our probability of winning at least 60%, preferably up to 80% above. To discard those that do not grasp and blind operation, reduce losses and increase profit opportunities.
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